The AFC landscape has changed dramatically this week. Just a few weeks ago, all four AFC North teams were firmly in the playoffs.
Now it seems unlikely that all four will reach the postseason, and that’s because of injuries.
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson broke a bone in his throwing shoulder, forcing him to miss the rest of the season, and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a torn wrist ligament in his throwing hand that will require surgery at the end of the season. .
With the Browns and Bengals losing their starting quarterbacks, life gets easier for their rivals – and the AFC in general. Let’s take a look at all the teams affected by recent QB injuries in the AFC North.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook; Projections from SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh
Cincinnati Bengals
Losing Burrow is obviously a blow to the Bengals. Cincy was already a bit behind the eight-ball due to a 1-3 start — and while the Bengals rallied to get to 5-3 — they’ve now lost two games in a row and just lost their franchise quarterback .
What options do the Bengals have? Jake Browning, who completed 8 of 14 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night, will likely be the new starter. The Bengals also have AJ McCarron on the practice squad.
The Bengals have some tough games to end the year. In fact, Tankathon says Cincinnati has the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.
The Bengals will face the Pittsburgh Steelers twice, the Jacksonville Jaguars on “Monday Night Football” and the Kansas City Chiefs on New Year’s Eve.
According to SportsLine’s Stephen Oh, the Bengals’ chances of making the playoffs dropped from 37.6% with Burrow to just 1.3% without him.
Cincy’s winning percentage dropped 14.1% and their odds of winning the AFC or Super Bowl fell to 0.0%.
Postseason chance after Watson’s injury: 48.9%
Postseason chance after Burrow’s injury: 1.3%
Playoff Odds: OFF
Cleveland Browns
After Watson finished the year, the Browns announced that rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, rather than veteran P.J. Walker, would start in Week 11 against the Steelers.
The UCLA product struggled in his first career start in Week 4, throwing for 121 yards and three interceptions in a 28-3 loss to Baltimore.
Many will be quick to ignore the Browns now that Watson is out, but it’s important to remember that this team beat the previously undefeated San Francisco 49ers earlier this year with Walker under center.
Cleveland has a legitimate chance to reach the postseason thanks to its incredible defense.
The Browns defense allows the fewest yards per game (242.7) since the 2008 Steelers, the fewest yards per drive (18.7) since the 1991 Philadelphia Eagles, and the fewest plays per game (53.6) since 1973 Los Angeles Rams.
Incredibly, Cleveland is 6-3 despite having the collectively worst completion percentage and topping TD-INT ratio and passer rating in the NFL this season.
The Browns have the second-best record through Week 10 since 1970, according to a team with the worst passer rating in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos, 2015 Super Bowl champions, were 7-2. DTR/Walker just has to take care of the football, rely on the No. 2 rushing attack in the NFL, and rely on Jim Schwartz’s defense.
Playoff chance after Watson injury: 63.9%
Playoff chance after Burrow injury: 73.2%
Odds of reaching the play-offs: -180
Baltimore Crows
The 8-3 Ravens were already considered one of the best teams in the NFL, and their path just got a little easier.
Baltimore has already completed its season series with both Cleveland and Cincinnati, so the Ravens won’t benefit from playing backup quarterbacks.
But with both rivals behind starters at the game’s most important position, it appears the Ravens will benefit.
They’re poised to win their first division title since 2019. Losing star Mark Andrews for what appears to be the rest of the season hurts, but the Ravens are still contenders.
Playoff chance after Watson injury: 92.4%
Playoff probability after Burrow’s injury: 95.8%
Odds of reaching the play-offs: -2400
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have every chance! They’re 6-3, despite not exactly looking like a 6-3 team.
It’s the best record in NFL history for a team that has been defeated in nine consecutive games! Pittsburgh has six comeback wins this season (most in the NFL) and is 6-0 in the league in one-score games.
The Steelers defense is feisty and T.J. Watt will always put pressure on the quarterback, but injuries at the linebacker position are definitely something to keep an eye on.
It doesn’t look like the Steelers will part ways with offensive coordinator Matt Canada, so fans will just have to keep hoping that he can find a way to improve this offensive attack.
It looks like Jaylen Warren will have a bigger role going forward, and quarterback Kenny Pickett has gone five straight games without a turnover.
The offense has potential, but has clearly underperformed.
It looks like the Steelers will make the playoffs. Check their remaining schedule. They are usually backup quarterbacks!
Opponent Projected opponent starting QB
Week 11 @ Browns
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Week 12 at Bengal
Jake Browning
Week 13 vs. Cardinals
Kyler Murray
Week 14 vs. Patriots
Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe
Week 15 @ Foals
Gardner Minshew
Week 16 vs. Bengals
Jake Browning
Week 17 @Seahawks
Geno Smith
Week 18 @ Crows
Lamar Jackson
Playoff chance after Watson injury: 62%
Playoff chance after Burrow injury: 82.8%
Odds of making the playoffs: OUT
The Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were considered the best team in the AFC South in 2023. Apparently this is now in discussion with C.J. Stroud and the surging Houston Texans, but at 6-3, Jacksonville has a great chance to reach the postseason, whether via division title or wild card.
Jacksonville is actually one of the teams benefiting the most from injuries in the AFC North, as Trevor Lawrence and Co. will play the Bengals and Browns in consecutive weeks in December.
Tankathon believes Jacksonville has the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the league.
It remains to be seen whether the Jags are legitimate contenders. We all saw what happened last week against the 49ers, but Jacksonville will have another chance to make the playoffs this year. Postseason Odds After Watson’s Injury: 76.6%
Postseason chance after Burrow’s injury: 84.1%
Playoff Odds: -600
Indianapolis Colts
Even after the loss to Anthony Richardson, the .500 Colts are on track for the playoffs. They must defeat the rival Texans (current No. 7) and the Browns (current No. 6).
With Cleveland losing Watson, this clearly helps Indy’s playoff case, and then the Colts face the Bengals in Week 14.
The Colts have now won two games in a row and enjoy a bye in in Week 11. This could be an interesting team to watch down the stretch.
Postseason chance after Watson’s injury: 15.4%
Postseason chance after Burrow’s injury: 22.7%
Odds for the playoffs: +280
