Broncos vs. Bills Prediction: Who has the Edge Monday Night? – Boardrooms
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The Broncos were terrible to start the season, losing five of their first six games and making their preseason +184 playoff odds look straight up silly. But, they do come into tonight with a two-game win streak under their belt, including a Week 8 upset victory over the lauded Kansas City Chiefs.
Even still, Denver’s current playoff odds sit at a far-fetched +1260. The fact that their offense, which features Russell Wilson at the helm and is paired with too many so-so targets, fares much better than their defense speaks volumes.
If they can hand the Bills their first home loss of the season and complete back-to-back victories over two teams who rank in the top five of numberFire’s power rankings, perhaps they can make some noise as a spoiler, but it’s more likely than not that a matchup with Denver will continue to be a welcome sign to opponents.
The Bills, meanwhile, have dropped three of their last five and serve as one of the more disappointing teams as we enter the second half of the season.
Their once-feared defense has been plagued with injuries, so difficult adjustments come with the territory here. But something must be said about how Josh Allen and the offense are finishing games.
All four Buffalo losses have been decided by six points or less, and 28.6% of the Bills’ turnovers this season have taken place in the fourth quarter of these four games.
With games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, and Chiefs (including three road games) on the horizon, it’s fair to say that the Bills no longer have room to drop games to inferior teams.
They are on a five-game losing streak against the spread but will be playing on their home turf tonight, which affords them quite a bit. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season and has outscored opponents by a whopping total of 124-57 at Highmark Stadium.
Despite what recency bias may tell us, this is a lopsided matchup and should be a victory for Buffalo’s taking, but we’ve learned to proceed with caution when siding with the Bills this season.
According to numberFire’s nERD-based power rankings, the Bills come into the night as the 5th-best team while the Broncos take up residency in the lowly 28th spot.
Buffalo’s second-ranked offense will see an opportunity to detonate Denver’s worst-ranked defense, which could lead to this game getting out of hand fast.
Though Josh Allen has had trouble getting his team over the hump in close games, he is still one of the best signal-callers in the business. Allen touts the fourth-highest Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) added per drop back in the league.
The Bills have struggled in the red zone as of late, converting only 54.55% of red zone visits to touchdowns over their last three games.
However, their overall 68.57% red zone scoring percentage ranks third in the NFL, and a home game against a weak defense should constitute a return of their stellar, early-season red zone numbers. Denver allows a 64.29% red zone scoring percentage on the road (eighth-worst).
They allowed 36.2 points per game through five games (including that 70-point performance by the Dolphins) and have since allowed an average of 15.0 points.
This new-look Denver defense could be legit, and their newfound ability to capitalize on turnovers gives credence to the moderate spread; going into this week, Allen led the league (tied) in interceptions.
While it’s important to recognize the Denver D’s recent success, we can’t ignore their falters, either. No team in the league gives up more rushing yards than Denver, but James Cook can be an inconsistent option on the ground.
Although, he has exploded a couple of times this season, and an early Bills lead paired with a vulnerable rush D could provide Cook ample opportunity to make his mark.
The Broncos also give up the sixth-most passing yards per game. Stefon Diggs found his way on the injury report this week, but unless we hear otherwise, we should probably expect Diggs to suit up and pose an ever-present threat. I’d look out for Dalton Kincaid to have a big game.
He’s been great since stepping in for Dawson Knox, grabbing at least 65 receiving yards in his last three. Plus, no team gives up more yards to tight ends than the Broncos.
As Denver’s offense goes, there’s not a whole ton to grab your attention. Only two receivers (Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton) are being targeted on a consistent basis. Jeudy and Sutton have identical 21.8% target shares while no other Bronco has a target share over 12.3%.
Jeudy and Sutton’s output has been meh (47.5 and 47.0 yards per game, respectively), and though the Bills’ D is bruised and battered, it’s not too difficult to silence Denver’s passing game.
While the Broncos will need to find spots in the passing game to stay in this one, it seems their rush game is better set up for success.
Buffalo gives up 114.4 rush yards per game (14th-most; as opposed to 19th-most passing yards allowed), and Javonte Williams has been a force on the ground as of late.
The Denver Broncos’ turnaround be damned, this will be Buffalo’s game, and I expect Allen and company to show out amidst the alarm bells being sounded on their season.
The Bills’ dominance at home is no fluke. It’s been exactly one year since Buffalo last lost at Highmark Stadium, and the 124-57 point margin at home is a juicy stat when considering that Denver can be prone to blowouts. Three out of five Bronco losses have been decided by at least 10 points.
Even if Denver’s D continues to show out, it will take a lot to shut down this Bills team, and the Broncos’ offense doesn’t seem primed to put up enough points to keep up.
Look for those early-season red zone scoring numbers (which, even still, rank third in the league) to get the Bills out to an early lead and carry them tonight.
The Broncos haven’t played since October 29th, and the Bills Mafia should see to a cold start only turning colder for Denver.
It’s put up or shut up time for the Bills, and I think they are up for the challenge against a team that is getting too much credit for an upset win against Kansas City.
Dalton Kincaid is averaging 73.7 receiving yards over his last three games and has a 22.9% target share over this span.
That’s second on the team to only Diggs. Tonight, he will face a team that gives up 71.1 yards to tight ends per game (most in the NFL).
Now, the Broncos have faced Travis Kelce twice this season, and he lit the Broncos up for 182 yards over these two matchups.
If we want to call Kelce an outlier, that’d be more than fair, so let’s take out Denver’s numbers against Kansas City tight ends.
The results? Denver still gives up a sizable 58.0 yards per game to this position, and I think Kincaid has proved he is a great target option — especially given how much attention the Broncos’ D will give to Diggs tonight.
Buffalo is giving up 114.4 rushing yards per game (14th; as opposed to 19th passing yards allowed), and Javonte Williams has been a force on the field lately.
Denver Broncos’ upset be damned, this will be Buffalo’s game, and I expect Allen and company to stand out amid the alarm bells ringing about their season.
The Bills’ dominance at home is no coincidence. It’s been exactly a year since Buffalo last lost at Highmark Stadium, and the 124-57 point margin at home is a juicy statistic considering Denver can be prone to blowouts.
Three of the Bronco’s five losses have been decided by at least 10 points. Even if Denver’s D continues to stand out, it’s going to take a lot to shut down this Bills team, and the Broncos’ offense doesn’t seem ready to put up enough points to keep up.
Look for the early season red zone score (which actually still ranks third in the league) to get the Bills going early and carry them tonight.
The Broncos haven’t played since October 29, and the Bills Mafia should ensure a cold start for Denver that only gets colder.
It’s the Bills’ time, and I think they’re ready for the challenge against a team that’s given way too much credit for an upset win over Kansas City.
Dalton Kincaid has averaged 73.7 yards in his last three games and has a 22.9% target share in that span.
He’s second best on the team after Diggs. Tonight, he faces a team that gives up 71.1 yards per game to tight ends (the most in the NFL).
Now, the Broncos have faced Travis Kelce twice this season, and he has led the Broncos to 182 rushing yards in those two meetings.
If we want to call Kelce an outlier, that would be more than fair, so let’s remove Denver’s numbers compared to Kansas City’s tight ends.
The results? Denver is still giving up a respectable 58.0 yards per game at the position, and I think Kincaid has proven himself to be a great target option – especially considering how much attention the Broncos’ D will give to Diggs tonight.
