Following weeks of speculation, a torrent of media articles from the West Australian press, and increasing fan interest, the West Coast Eagles have brought an end to coach Adam Simpson’s era.
Over 11 seasons, Simpson took the Eagles to two grand finals and one premiership but won only eight games in more than two and a half seasons. Their 2018 flag remains a high point for the proud club, arguably their most memorable and hardest-fought victory. At the end of the day, West Coast fans have just one question — what went wrong since then?
From Premiers to Wooden Spooners
There are several indicators along the way that point to reasons for the decline from premiers in 2018 to wooden spooners last year.
Player availability is perhaps as important as any other factor in modern football. West Coast has been hit hard by injuries and the natural decline of aging players. It’s no surprise that 2024 has been the best they’ve looked in three years — it’s also the healthiest they’ve been in that time.
The general list recruitment picture has also been a factor — one that confronts most successful sides on the way back down the ladder. West Coast had been able to maintain some solid list renewal while contending before the 2018 flag. The Eagles largely missed out on the first round of the drafts from 2015 to 2017. However, they made up for it with a glut of second-round picks yielding parts of their current core, such as Jake Waterman, Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan, and Tom Cole.
In 2019, West Coast went all in to acquire Tim Kelly, giving up a haul including two more first-rounders for the former Cat. This was similar to the moves Hawthorn made to grab Wingard, Mitchell, and O’Meara to try to top up for another run at a flag. From this point, West Coast’s draft well ran dry. They took no picks within the first 28 selections between 2018 and 2020, with none inside the top 48 for 2019 and 2020. They also didn’t hit on those late-round fliers like in their earlier run. The years of lean drafts robbed West Coast of the ability to accumulate top-end talent.
A Forward Line Without Kennedy Led to Decline
Other game-style factors may have impacted the fall. Their hyper-efficient attack underwrote that famous 2018 premiership. Led by Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, the Eagles could score like few other teams, turning half chances into certain goals. The Eagles had streamlined their attacking system through Simpson’s early time in charge. Their cohesive group of forwards had nailed down leading patterns, hotspots, and entry kicks. Watching the Eagles at full flight was truly a spectacle worth tuning in for.
The changing of the guard meant that cohesion was lost. The departure of their biggest star up forward, Kennedy, illuminated perhaps a bigger issue. Defenses can’t always stop an opposition side altogether. Instead, they can only force them into less desirable positions, such as far from goal and into the pockets. Without the ever-reliable Kennedy, the Eagles’ ability to generate goals from these harder spots has plummeted. Almost alone, Kennedy turned West Coast into one of the best goal-kicking sides in the competition. Without him, they’ve sunk.
This year, the Eagles have generated the sixth-lowest quality of scoring shots (based on field position and context). They’ve also struggled to convert these opportunities, kicking worse than expected on these hard chances. Without that clear, ball-winning focal point in the air, they’ve struggled to dominate that valuable real estate inside 50. Their rate of finding marking targets inside 50 is near the bottom of the competition, perhaps a sign of a lack of connection or slightly undersized forward focal points. In 2018, they could cover for a lower quality of shots. In 2024, they don’t have that top-end talent.
Defensive Mindset Took Longer to Adjust
It wasn’t just the Eagles’ attack that led them to success in recent years past. The Eagles also deployed a strong defense during their time at the top under Simpson, headlined by All Australian key talls such as Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass. McGovern often played an intercepting role around their peak. He had the license to peel off, eat space, and disrupt attacks. The game for spare defenders has evolved, with teams better at exploiting shorter kicks and moving laterally. It’s taken time for McGovern and the Eagles to adjust. Recently, they’ve moved to a more fluid style and counterattacked more quickly, but it has not translated to regular success.
But this hasn’t been their only defensive issue in recent years. ABC Sport explored the Eagles’ ability to score heavily from center clearances earlier this year. While West Coast has been about the most potent side at attacking from the center bounce since the start of 2023, they have also leaked the most points. West Coast has appeared to set up aggressively at stoppages, looking to win their ball and attack quickly. If this fails, they tend to leave themselves exposed going the other way.
Simpson wasn’t blind to these issues. After the loss to Melbourne last week, he lamented their ability to structure around ground-ball contests. “You know the system was OK, but contests were a problem. We got outnumbered in ground-ball situations, so when the game opened up, we struggled a little bit. When we closed it down and shut them down, we looked a bit better.”
All teams struggle to defend quickly from clear stoppage exits and turnovers. The Eagles, in particular, have often struggled to slow opposition attacks enough to effectively set up. They’ve conceded the most marks inside 50 per opposition inside 50 of any side this year, despite having players like Barrass and McGovern still playing good defensive footy down back.
The next coach — caretaker or full-time — will need to look seriously at their ability to shut the opposition down when they lose contests. The current ball-winner-heavy rotation — or at least strategic focus — may need to adjust.
The Future Ahead for the Eagles
It is clear that there have been issues increasingly building on the field for the Eagles. What is less clear is whether the incessant media attention towards the demise of Simpson was warranted. Few jobs have more public pressure than an AFL senior coach — let alone being the coach of the biggest team in one of the most football-obsessed places in the country. Coach of the Eagles might be the highest-profile job in the west behind the premier of the state. At face value, this level of pressure and scrutiny may deter some on the outside from the gig. That might be selling the job — one of only 18 senior coaching roles out there — significantly short.
In fact, it might be the most appealing senior coaching role to open up in recent years. West Coast has some structural advantages that few other clubs have. They have significant financial resources backed by a passionate fan base. From a purely financial standpoint, they might have the best set up in the league and have the capacity to spend into the football department luxury tax should they so choose.
They’ve also got some key pieces that could promise contention sooner rather than later to a coach who can tap into their list. The Eagles aren’t the finished product right now, but they look closer to an upswing than another down. Sometimes a different voice — and game plan — can do wonders for a side. The Eagles have also shown considerable loyalty to their coaches over the years. The next coach should be presented with good resources, some interesting on-field building blocks, and seemingly solid job security to help rebuild the Eagles to the top.
Simpson’s next step is also still to come. At just 48, he has more than enough time for a second act.
