Assessing Alabama’s chances with every remaining target

We’ve made it to the final hours leading up the Early Signing Period. With just two days until pens hit paper, Alabama holds the No. 4 class with 21 commitments.

 

Most of the class is already in Tuscaloosa participating in Rose Bowl practice and some won’t enroll until the summer. All plan to sign their National Letter of Intent on Wednesday.

As for the putting the finishing touches on the 2024 class, Nick Saban and his staff have positioned themselves well to do so with a few uncommitted targets.

Bama247 provided the latest intel on every remaining target Sunday night. This morning, we’re putting confidence levels and some reasoning for each target.

Here are the confidence levels:

All signs pointing Tide’s way

Could see Saban pulling it off

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Shot in the dark

Recruiting is a very fluid situation and things can drastically change at any second. This is a Monday morning update based off the latest intel and rumblings:

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Alabama Near Bottom In SEC Pre-League Wins

Nate Oats has scheduled tough teams, and Alabama has suffered tough losses

Do you know what happens Saturday, January 6? Other than the fact that the College Football Playoff semifinals winners will have arrived in Houston in advance of the Monday, January 8, national championship game, it’s not a football Saturday. It is the start of Southeastern Conference basketball season, insofar as league teams playing one another for most of the next three-and-half months. That still is about three weeks away, though, and in the interim most SEC teams are padding their schedules with wins.

Not all, but some.

Today Ole Miss is leading the SEC with a 10-0 record. It would not be a surprise if the Rebels go into conference play (at Tennessee) with a 13-0 record.

Alabama, on the other hand, is 6-4, third from the bottom among SEC teams in non-conference games and likely to be 6-5 after playing Arizona in Phoenix Wednesday (10 p.m. CST on ESPN). Arizona was No. 1 in the nation, although beaten by Purdue on Saturday. Purdue had been No. 4 in the nation before beating Alabama in Toronto and Arizona. Between Purdue and Arizona the Tide has lost to No. 8 Creighton on the road.

Alabama Coach Nate Oats is on record as intentionally playing a tough schedule to see where his team measures up. So far, just a little short, a six-point loss to Purdue (92-86) and a three-point loss at Creighton (85-82). This is, of course, an almost completely rebuilt Alabama team, eight new players and all three of the assistant coaches new.

There is no guarantee that playing a very tough schedule will pay dividends, but that was the philosophy of former Tide Coach C.M. Newton (“You’ve got to play the best to be the best,” was his mantra.) On the other hand, Wimp Sanderson, also very successful, did not subscribe to a theory that might result in a handful of losses. (I once advised him to schedule bad basketball teams from good football schools and that neither his record nor ticket sales would suffer.) There’s no one formula for being successful, except perhaps recruiting.

There also is no guarantee that Bama won’t be punished at NCAA Tournament selection time for those pre-conference losses, but in recent years just playing a tough schedule was looked upon favorably by the selection committee.

Alabama will open the season at an historically difficult place to play, Vanderbilt’s quirky Memorial Gym, at 2:30 p.m. CST, Saturday, Jan. 6, on SEC Network.

Once upon a time the Commodores were among the best in basketball in the SEC, but Vandy has been having rough times of late and as of today is 4-6.

Here’s how things look:

SEC STANDINGS

Ole Miss                     10-0

South Carolina            9-1

Kentucky                     8-2

Mississippi State        9-2

Auburn                        8-2

Tennessee                   8-3

Florida                        7-3

Georgia                       7-3

Missouri                      7-4

Arkansas                     7-4

Texas A&M                 7-4

Alabama                      6-4

LSU                              6-5

Vanderbilt                   4-6

THIS WEEK’S GAMES

Tuesday

Winthrop at South Carolina

Troy at Ole Miss

Western Carolina at Vanderbilt, 6 p.m. CST, SEC Network

Florida at Michigan, 6 p.m. CST, ESPN

Wednesday

Mount St. Marys at Georgia

Alabama vs. Arizona in Phoenix, 10 p.m. CST, ESPN

Thursday

Kentucky at Louisville, 5 p.m. CST, ESPN

Tarleton State at Tennessee

Abilene Christian at Arkansas, 6 p.m. CST, SEC Network

Lamar at LSU, 8 p.m. CST, SEC Network

Friday

North Florida at Georgia

Grambling at Florida

Elon at South Carolina, 6 p.m . EST, 5 p.m. central, SEC Network

Alabama State at Auburn

Houston Christian at Texas A&M, 7 p.m. CST, SEC Network

Illinois at Missouri, 9 p.m. EST, 8 p.m. central, Fox Sports 1

Saturday

Mississippi State at Rutgers

Ole Miss at Southern Miss

Eastern Kentucky at Alabama, 3 p.m. CST, SEC Network

Vanderbilt at Memphis, 3 p.m. CST, CBS

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