Here’s what the Cleveland Browns need to do to mount a serious challenge for their first division title since 1989.
The Cleveland Browns improved their playoff chances after beating the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in consecutive weeks for the first time in 15 tries.
Despite losing key players like Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson, the Browns’ historic defense led the way and kept them in the playoff race.
The AFC North is a challenging division, but the Browns have a chance to win it if they can catch the Ravens and perform well in their remaining games.
Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson will play a crucial role in their playoff aspirations.
After two weeks of brutal AFC North competition, the struggling Cleveland Browns were promoted to the NFL’s toughest division. For the first time in 15 tries, Cleveland beat its division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, in consecutive weeks.
These unprecedented victories greatly improved their playoff chances.
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Browns have an 89 percent chance of reaching the postseason.
Despite losing All-Pro running back Nick Chubb and acquiring Deshaun Watson for $230 million, the team continues to improve.
Myles Garrett leads a historic defense determined to win regardless of offensive performance.
Here are Cleveland’s chances in the AFC North and beyond.
Many consider Chubb to be the best running back in football.
This summer, Sports Illustrated surveyed the coaches, players and executives who chose the Browns’ workhorse RB1 over Christian McCaffrey as the NFL’s RB1. His unique combination of size, speed and consistency earned him the top spot.
Over his career, he averaged 1,210 yards per season with a staggering 5.3 yards per carry, ranking third all-time among running backs.
Watson hasn’t played particularly well all season. Of course, in true Brown tortuous fashion, his season ended after he went 14-for-14 in the second half against the Ravens.
To make matters worse, they also lost Pro Bowl tackle Jack Conklin this year. Losing all these crucial players should hurt any team’s chances.
However, Dawg Pound’s soldiers won thanks to their defense throughout the century.
Historic defense up to the challenge
To overcome endless injuries in a cutthroat division, Cleveland turned to Garrett and his stellar defense. Zac Jackson of The Athletic explained how special this unit was. Here are some highlights
Three-and-out percentage of 52.7% (highest percentage this century).
Opponents gained zero or negative yards on 43.4% of snaps (the highest percentage this century). Only 243.3 yards allowed per game, the fewest since the 2008 Steelers.
131.68 Expected Points Added (EPA), 27 more than the second-place Ravens.
Deservedly, their divine defensive end is now the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year at +100, while Micah Parsons (+230) and T.J. Watt (+340) struggles to keep up.
With the offense falling apart, the defense will have to continue to destroy the game.
Garrett spoke of their unwavering resilience:
We are as tough as them. We will be resilient until the end. We will be consistent. We will continue to fight. It doesn’t matter what happens during the game.
Depending on what happens, you will get the better of us for 60 minutes or more. AFC North massacre
Unfortunately, due to Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury, the AFC North looks only slightly less daunting.
Even with the likelihood of the Cincinnati Bengals folding, the Steelers, Ravens and Browns would all fight for the lead in their divisions if they could move anywhere other than the AFC North.
According to Axios’ Rahul Mukherjee, this gulag of a division has a composite winning percentage of 67, about 15 points higher than its closest division (AFC South).
To win the AFC North, the Browns must beat the Ravens 8-3, who remain ahead at the half.
ProFootballNetwork ranked the Baltimore Ravens with the second most challenging remaining schedule, behind only the Bengals.
For comparison, the Browns finished 16th thanks to games against the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears.
If they finish with the same record, it will come down to division wins and losses.
They are currently tied at 3-2, meaning the final games of the season with the Browns at Cincinnati and the Ravens at home against the Steelers could ultimately decide who wins the division.
The NYT Simulator puts Cleveland’s AFC North rating at just 29 percent, likely due to the Ravens’ strong performance.
What’s even more concerning for Browns fans is that this leaves their Super Bowl chances at just 3 percent. How far can they go?
Unfortunately, much of their hopes rest on the shoulders of fifth-round rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR).
They probably wish they hadn’t traded Josh Dobbs before the season, but to be honest, they traded Dobbs because they had a really good feeling about DTR. Garrett believes in the newcomer:
The guy loves the game like crazy. He focuses on his job. He is very insightful and eager to listen to the kids and his seniors to get new information.
It collects information from all of us: defense, attack. She wants to give her best and she has shown it.
After an understandably atrocious performance against the Ravens in his first start in early 2023, DTR looked better against the Steelers in Week 11 thanks to a full week of practice and preparation.
His numbers against Pittsburgh don’t exactly inspire confidence: 24 of 43 passes for 165 yards and one interception for a rating of 54.9.
However, he was basically perfect (4-5 for 48 yards) on their game-winning drive, with his only miss coming on a pick.
It’s hard to seriously imagine them making the playoffs, but maybe they’ll abandon the old maxim that “defense wins championships.”
